Bitcoin Sees Longest Stretch of Price Consolidation Since October

Bitcoin (BTC) is witnessing the longest stretch of range-bound price activity in three months. The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been largely restricted to trading between $3,700 and $3,500 since Jan. 11 – the longest stretch at such a narrow range since the end of October. Back then, the market had gone quiet, with prices staying within the $6,500–$6,350 range in the 12 days leading up to Oct. 28. On the following day, BTC dropped to $6,208. After another period of sideways movement, bitcoin fell well below the crucial…

Bitcoin’s Price Counters the VIX, Confirming It’s Still a Risk Asset

Evidence is emerging that bitcoin has yet to truly earn its reputation as an “uncorreleated asset.” Case and point, bitcoin’s latest sell-off from $6,000 to nearly $3,000 was accompanied by a surge in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX measures the 30-day forward-looking volatility of the S&P 500 to gauge the market’s fear and risk tolerance, which is why it is commonly referred to as the “fear gauge” for the broader U.S. stock market.  In theory, the VIX should be low when the S&P 500 is in a steady uptrend and…

This Former Bitcoin Price Support Is Now Capping Gains

Bitcoin’s (BTC) weekly gains were wiped out at the weekend at a key moving average that previously offered support. The leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization jumped to highs above $6,750 on Saturday, having weakened the immediate bearish case with a repeated defense of the psychological support level of $3,500 last week. BTC, however, failed to secure a UTC close above the 21-day MA. More importantly, rejection at that MA hurdle proved costly – BTC fell 3.8 percent to $3,470 yesterday. So, it could be argued that the MA line, which…

Bitcoin Price Consolidation May Have Weakened Bear Case

Bitcoin’s eight-day stretch of consolidation looks to have weakened the prospects of a drop back to December lows near $3,100. The leading cryptocurrency by market value has been restricted to a narrow range of $3,500 to $3,700 since Jan. 11. That range play is somewhat surprising, as BTC had set the stage for a quick slide toward December lows near $3,100 with a 9 percent drop on Jan. 10 – the biggest single-day decline since Nov. 24. Notably, prices fell to $3,500 that day, erasing the hard-fought gains of the preceding…

Bitcoin Price Volatility is Down 98% Year-on-Year

Bitcoin price volatility has crashed in the last 12 months as the bear market killed off the speculative frenzy. Daily volatility, as represented by the spread between the price high and price low, stood at $61 yesterday – down a hefty 98 percent from the figure of $3,468 observed on Jan. 16, 2018 – according to CoinMarketCap data. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s price is also down 74 percent year-on-year.  Generally, with a sharp drop in price, volatility in dollar terms tends to fall in parallel. Notably, volatility was extremely high in percentage terms 12 months…

Will Bitcoin’s Price Extend Its Four-Year January Losing Streak?

Bitcoin (BTC) has reported losses in January for the last four years, and a fifth now looks on the cards. The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell 32 percent, 14.6 percent, 0.10 percent and 26.64 percent in the first month of 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index. Notably, the odds are stacked in favor of BTC extending the four-year January losing streak this year. BTC fell 13 percent last week, signaling an end of the corrective bounce from the December low of $3,122. The…

Bitcoin Futures Now Trading At Discount to Exchange Prices

Signs are emerging that the futures market may not be impressed by bitcoin’s recovery from 15-months lows in December – at press time, the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than the futures price. As of writing, the global average or spot price calculated by CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI) is currently $3,650 – up 16.9 percent from the low of $3,122 reached on December. Meanwhile, futures contracts are trading below the spot price. BTC futures As seen above (CME chart), January futures are reporting a $20 discount (futures price-spot price). Further, contracts…

This Price Resistance Level May Hold Key to Bitcoin Bull Market

That bitcoin (BTC) may be closing on a long-term bottom is generally accepted by now. After all, the leading cryptocurrency by market value has dropped by close to 70 percent over the last 13 months. The challenge now is to pick up early signs of a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change, which may be possible with the help of the 10-week simple moving average (SMA). Acting as resistance, that moving average proved a tough nut to crack in the eight weeks to Nov. 14 – the day BTC reentered the bear…

Bitcoin Risks Return to December Lows After Price Drop to $3.5K

After breaching key support on Sunday, emboldened bears could soon push bitcoin (BTC) prices back towards $3,100. Following a drop to a 3.5-week low of $3,476 at 16:00 UTC yesterday, the cryptocurrency closed at $3,516, effectively invalidating the bullish view put forward by the higher low of $3,566 carved out on Dec. 27. That move also added credence to the bearish reversal signaled by the 9 percent price drop witnessed last Thursday. Put simply, the bears have strengthened their control of the market, after the bulls failed to penetrate the…

Bitcoin Price Looks South After Worst Daily Loss Since November

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price saw its biggest drop for seven weeks on Thursday, weakening the prospects of a bullish breakout above $4,100. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value hit a 3.5-week low of $3,503 yesterday, before closing (as per UTC) at $3,627 – down 9.4 percent on the day. That was the biggest single-day drop since Nov. 24 and the fourth biggest daily loss of the last two months, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). Essentially, the hard-fought gains of the last two weeks have been erased in the…